Blackjack seems like a simple game at first, just like poker, but when you start to learn the in’s and out’s, you’ll find that there are a lot more factors to deciding whether or not to hit. And also like in poker, many times little overlooked facts will make the difference between winning and losing.
One highly overlooked statistic is the prevalence of cards with a value of ten. It’s easy to think that the odds are the same that any value from one to ten will show up, but with face cards counting as ten, the odds of a ten coming up are quadrupled.
Think about it-in a deck of 52 cards, every ten, Jack, Queen, and King is worth ten. With four suits that’s sixteen cards with a value of ten in every deck. That’s just higher than a one-in-three chance of you getting a ten with every hit.
Treat this with the same caution as you do with low pocket pairs in poker. This should go a long way in deciding whether or not to hit on when you’ve got twelve or above. Conversely, it should make you think harder about what your dealer’s got. Each hand you play, you can assume that he’s got a ten face down and plan accordingly. He won’t have that ten every time, but you can bet that he’ll have it more often than not.
